![]() ![]() This makes many business-as-usual scenarios seem obsolete. Yet in recent years, the international community has pledged sustained climate action – committing to substantially reduce carbon emissions and implementing various policies to do so, such as emission-trading schemes and carbon pricing. For example, those of us not immersed in the world of energy technologies may not have perceived the revolution in electric vehicles that is just around the corner just as at the turn of last century, customers of the horse and cart may not have predicted the imminent abundance of the motorcar.Ĭurrent business-as-usual scenarios tend to employ little or no efforts to limit carbon dioxide emissions, often resulting in scenarios with a high reliance on fossil fuels up to and beyond 2050. However, given the pace of technological innovation – and the transformational change necessary to reach a sustainable energy system – what is the value of using archaic assumptions to inform future scenarios? If we only use reference scenarios that include social, technological and policy norms that have already happened, we may miss the changes that will significantly alter the trajectory of the future energy system. In the energy industry, business-as-usual scenarios are based on a set of assumptions that build on historical norms, projecting the configuration of the energy system 10-50 years into the future. Following an energy modelling workshop with academics, industry leaders and policymakers, research postgraduates Jonathan Bosch and Clara Heuberger reflect on its conclusions, analysing what business-as-usual means today, and the future of energy models.īusiness-as-usual scenarios have long been considered an essential point of reference in policymaking, planning and investment – a baseline to compare alternative scenarios, or a starting point for analysis of a system. However, the energy transition is already underway: basing future energy models on such scenarios could be highly risky. Conventionally, such models are based on business-as-usual scenarios – points of reference informed by historical norms. You will be contacted by a letter or email if we need more information on your visa application.Energy models are a vital tool to help predict what the future energy system could look like.
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